The American Presidential Election thread 2012 aka PMSL at Seppos

[skully]

It's the Trump and Palin Republican show

"Donald Trump and Sarah Palin both continued their political tease over the weekend, rallying the faithful ahead of a potential - but by no means confirmed - run at the White House."

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On the Nooz tonight it seemed to suggest that Trump running as the Republican nominee (pending run-offs) in 2012 was a foregone conclusion. Hmm, what a weird country the USA is.

[Big Dog]

Yeah...not doing the Republican cause any good unfortunately.

[skully]

And Trump suggests that current US foreign policy is making the US a laughing stock? Imagine having him as the President?

[taipan]

And Trump suggests that current US foreign policy is making the US a laughing stock? Imagine having him as the President?

He has loads of apprentices.

[Fred Nerk]

We may as well have a good laugh now because either this is a gi-normous outrageous beat-up and it will be over by Friday, or it's not and then it will be no laughing matter at all.

[JGK]

Aye. The weirdest thing is that Trump could actually get up as he has the money and connections and celebrity.

Palin only has the celebrity (of sorts) and even that is diminishing every time she opens her mouth.

[Hass]

Neither Trump nor Palin will get anywhere near the Republican nomination.

The Tea Party nutters might be loud, but the Establishment still holds the most sway.

But their presence in the contest will only do the Republicans harm by forcing sane candidates like Mitt Romney to move closer towards 'the crazy'.

[JKLever]

How far can a man with a hairpiece as stupid as that get anyway?

[skully]

Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford and Ronald Regan got all the way to the top job.

[Allan D]

Trump seems to be getting his traction from embracing the cause of the "Birthers" who are the right-wing equivalent in nuttiness of the "Truthers" who believe that George Bush and the US Government not Al-Qaeda were responsible for the attacks on 9/11. The "Birthers" believe that Obama was not born in Hawaii as he claims but in either Kenya (then in 1961 still a British colony), his father's country, or Indonesia (where he lived for a time as a child), the native home of his stepfather (even though his mother had not yet married him) thus making him not entitled to US citizenship at the time of his birth and therefore ineligible to run for the Presidency (which restricts candidates to "native-born US citizens)

This is despite the fact that the "births" column of the local newspaper shows that Barack Hussain Obama was born on 4 August (a birthday he shares with the late Queen Mother) 1961 at the Kapiʻolani Maternity & Gynecological Hospital in Honolulu, Hawaii which had become the 50th state of the Union two years previously. Even if this were not true the fact that his mother, Stanley Ann Obama nee Dunham, born in Wichita, Kansas, was undoubtedly a US citizen at the time of Obama's birth would have entitled Obama to US citizenship by inheritance.

Obama's opponent at the last President election, John McCain, was born in a military hospital in Panama in 1936 and George Romney, the father of Obama's likely opponent in 2012, who was a candidate for the Republican nomination in 1968, was born to American parents in the Mormon colonies in Mexico in 1907 but neither's eligibility to be candidates for the US Presidency was ever questioned to my knowledge.

Trump's importance lies not in the Republican primaries where, apart from Romney, he is the only candidate who could choose to be self-financing, but in his recently-announced threat to stand as a third-party candidate if he fails to win the Republican Party nomination. He would then act as a "spoiler" taking away votes mainly from the Republican candidate and allowing Obama to win as a minority candidate in much the same way as Ross Perot enabled Clinton to win only 43% of the vote in 1992.

Given Obama's present approval rating, the state of the economy and the current fiscal position of the US a Trump candidacy is probably Obama's best chance of re-election. The concentration on the "Birther" issue enables the Dems to portray Obama's opponents as "nutty" although there is equal nuttiness on their side with the "Truthers" whilst a Trump third-party challenge in the general election would enable Obama to focus on bringing out his base in order to secure victory.

Polls show that although Obama is unpopular and a majority think he does not deserve re-election the only two Republican candidates capable of defeating him are the former Governor of Massachussetts, Mitt Romney, and the former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, who both lost to John McCain in the contest for the Republican nomination in 2008. Both those candidates are running neck-and-neck with Obama in a general election campaign. Every other possible candidate, including Trump, would lose to Obama, despite the US' current economic difficulties, by a wide margin

Like most elections, not only in the US, but throughout the developed world, to be successful a candidate has to persuade not his own loyalists but the uncommitted, independent voters. It was this group Obama managed to persuade in the last Presidential election but with whom he is doing so badly (only 35% say they support him) at present. Obama therefore has two alternatives. He can either abandon his more ideological programmes and become more pragmatic seeking consensus and compromise in the national interest or he can portray his opponents as more extreme than he is.

Whilst I dismiss the "Birther" and the "Truther" conspiracy theories for the nonsense they undoubtedly are I think there is an even more subtle conspiracy afoot in the current candidacy of Donald Trump.

[Henry]

The Republicans are f*cked. To get back in the game, they'll have to distance themselves completely from the right wing Tea Party nutters. Perhaps even move more towards the centre-left.

[Allan D]

Polls: Republican Presidential Nomination 2012

Polls: Obama v. Republican candidates

[Allan D]

The Republicans are f*cked. To get back in the game, they'll have to distance themselves completely from the right wing Tea Party nutters. Perhaps even move more towards the centre-left.

Not quite. The Tea Party nutters enabled the Republicans to regain the House of Representatives which frames the Budget last November forcing Obama to moderate his spending proposals, although not sufficiently for the right but too much for the left. As long as the Republicans stick to fiscal issues and the state of the economy and put up a sensible candidate they stand a good chance in spite of a potential Trump third-party run.

[furriner]

Neither Trump nor Palin will get anywhere near the Republican nomination.

The Tea Party nutters might be loud, but the Establishment still holds the most sway.

But their presence in the contest will only do the Republicans harm by forcing sane candidates like Mitt Romney to move closer towards 'the crazy'.

Was speaking to a guy who's been a political activist here in the US since the 70s. He was talking about how candidates for the US Congress and Senate - Republicans and Democrats - are being forced to move to extremes.

Ironically it's because the candidates have to first contest with other people within their parties to get the ticket. And in those elections only the 'passionate', 'committed' people turn up (read mostly idiots, bigots, loonies). Stands to reason - not many people I know actually bother to vote for electing a candidate who will then stand for elections...so to speak.

With the result that the reasonable candidates on both sides can get winnowed out early. Unless they start to move closer to 'the crazy' as you put it.

[embee]

Is running a company so different to running a country?

Trump is a successful businessman ...mainly real estate and casinos but there are other interests as well ...On the little I watched of "The Apprentice" Trump did use his advisors very well which is what a political leader should do too

He may wear a shocking "Moreton" but he wouldnt be the first US president to do that ...and as for making a dick of himself on reality tv ...seen any of Reagan's movies

He couldn't be worse than dubya was portrayed as being ...